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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still